For Us, It’s Not Too Hot, Not Too Cold, But Just Right

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Where are we in the economic cycle and where are we likely to go from here? If one starts with the conjecture that the stock market is a reasonable proxy for the health of the economy, and that the S&P500 Index is a reasonable indicator for the stock market, then the economy looks to be in good shape. The total return for the S&P500 for the first nine months of 2014, according to Bloomberg Finance LP, was +8.34% and the total return for the third quarter was 1.13%. We find this performance is not sensational, but…

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